AFR Study: Affordable Housing in Rwanda: Housing Submarkets

This review of Rwanda’s affordable housing sector and its financing was commissioned by Access to Finance Rwanda and undertaken by CAHF in partnership with 71point4 and local consultant Fatou Dieye.  Eight reports are available.  This report considers Rwanda’ supply side in terms of six housing submarkets.  The analysis was undertaken by Fatou Dieye with support on demand side segmentation by 71point4.

Rwanda’s Vision 2050 “sets a new pathway that will lead the country to the livings standards of upper middle income by 2035 and high-income countries by 2050”. In line with this vision, the National Land Use Development Management Plan predicts a 2% annual growth rate, such that by 2050, Rwanda’s population will be 22.1 million people.  To meet the housing needs of these people, the NLUDMP projects that 5,5 million dwelling units will be required by 2050, or an annual delivery of 150 000 dwelling units between 2020 and 2050. The research finds the urban figure to be an estimated 3,2 million units by 2050.  Even just this urban projection demands a higher rate of annual delivery than current formal capacity has been able to achieve.  The report finds that most housing in Rwanda is being delivered by smaller scale players and by households themselves, often informally. Meeting the Vision 2050 affordable housing targets both in terms of the anticipated scale and quality will require strong partnerships between market players and with government, while also explicitly leveraging and growing the capacity of smaller scale players.

This report segments the housing supply side into six housing submarkets that reflect the diversity of housing form and type and tenure across Rwanda. EICV 5 data has been used to segment households into the six submarkets to provide an estimate of the size of each submarket. The distinction between submarkets can at times be blurry, for example the distinction between submarkets 2 and 3 (backyard landlords and household landlords), therefore segment sizes are an estimate based on various criteria described below:

This report further delves into the characteristics of each submarket highlighting the typical user profiles, financial linkages, value chain linkages, case studies, in addition to current challenges and opportunities in the submarket.